Prague Embassy cable, Popular and Soviet Pressure for Reform Converge on the Jakes Leadership

Part of any U.S. ambassador's job involves evaluating the political situation at their post. When Ambassador Shirley Temple Black arrived in Prague in early autumn 1989, most American officials agreed that the conservative Czechoslovak leadership would be in power for a while. Only a few weeks later, Black radically revised this view, presenting her reasons in this November 20 cable. She cited two forces in particular causing significant changes in the conservatives' position. The first was popular pressure from below, which had substantially broadened with the protests against police brutality on November 17. The government's response had so far been hesitant and ineffectual. The second was a move by the Soviets to revise their relations with Czechoslovakia. The "1968 question" referred to that year's Warsaw Pact invasion crushing the Prague Spring reform socialist movement. Afterwards, the Soviet-installed Czechoslovak regime used the threat of violent intervention to suppress all reforms. By questioning this historical precedent, the Soviets were knocking out an important pillar of the conservatives' political support. And with other regional hardliners succumbing to change – witness East Germany – the Czechoslovak Communist leadership found themselves increasingly alone and vulnerable.