Warsaw Embassy Cable, Election '89: Solidarity's Coming Election

In the following report, the American Ambassador to Poland (John R. Davis, Jr.) outlines possible outcomes of June 4 elections and what consequences might follow from each. Although the analysis reveals a general expectation that the regime would perform poorly, considerable uncertainty remains over whether this will translate into a clear mandate for Solidarity. The cable underscores two dynamics in the American reaction to this unprecedented event: first, the absence of any firm predictions as to the likely outcome of the elections (or their potential impacts). Second (and as interesting), the American diplomat shows some sympathy for the concerns that a dramatic Solidarity victory could be undesirable, since it could alarm both domestic hardliners and ruling circles in Poland’s neighbors.

This source is a part of the Solidarity Comes to Power in Poland, 1989 teaching module.